Preliminary estimation of the tsunami hazards associated with the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

Mohammad Heidarzadeh  Moharram D. Pirooz  Nasser H. Zaker  Ahmet C. Yalciner 《Natural Hazards》2009,48(2):229-243

We present a preliminary estimation of tsunami hazard associated with the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean. Makran is one of the two main tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean, which has produced some tsunamis in the past. Northwestern Indian Ocean remains one of the least studied regions in the world in terms of tsunami hazard assessment. Hence, a scenario-based method is employed to provide an estimation of tsunami hazard in this region for the first time. The numerical modeling of tsunami is verified using historical observations of the 1945 Makran tsunami. Then, a number of tsunamis each resulting from a 1945-type earthquake (M _w 8.1) and spaced evenly along the MSZ are simulated. The results indicate that by moving a 1945-type earthquake along the MSZ, the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan will experience the largest waves with heights of between 5 and 7 m, depending on the location of the source. The tsunami will reach a height of about 5 m and 2 m in northern coast of Oman and eastern coast of the United Arab Emirates, respectively.  相似文献   

Impact assessment using DEA of coastal hazards on social-economy in Southeast Asia   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

Le-Le Zou  Yi-Ming Wei 《Natural Hazards》2009,48(2):167-189

Southeast Asian countries suffer from severe coastal hazards each year. A large number of these countries are incurring consequential costs that impact their national economies. It is crucial, therefore, to analyze the impact of such hazards on their economic development and provide a solid basis for future development strategies. The purpose of this paper is to assess the relationship between the economic development and the losses from coastal disasters, and to identify both the impact of hazards on the development, as well as the function of such development on the resilience to hazards. The data envelopment analysis (DEA) method is employed to build the assessment models. Data from 1995 to 2005 from eight Southeast countries are analyzed using the DEA models. A set of “resilience index” of these countries are concluded from the results. It is found that the economic development does not contribute to the strengthening of national resilience to coastal hazards. Inappropriate development could even impair the resilience. Additionally, the resilience to coastal hazards is impacted by various factors such as the allocation of resources and external assistance. From the analysis, a clear image is gained of the interaction between economic development and coastal hazards, which provides a basis for future development strategies.

Yi-Ming WeiEmail: Email:

  相似文献   

极端洪水灾害损失评估方法及应用   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

仇蕾  王慧敏  马树建 《水科学进展》2009,20(6):869-875

极端洪水灾害具有频率低、影响范围大、损失高等特点,一般常遇洪水的灾害损失评估方法难以适用。分析了极端洪水灾害的自然属性与社会属性,认为极端洪水灾害损失具有时空分布的特性,因此借鉴空间信息格网技术,分别形成了极端洪水水文特性格网与社会经济特性格网,并将其叠加得到具有空间拓扑关系和属性信息的基于GIS的极端洪水损失空间信息格网模型,从而有效地反映了极端洪水灾害的时空特性。结合极端洪水损失率数据库,可评估极端洪水灾害损失。利用该方法评估了1998年特大洪水造成哈尔滨市江南主城区的直接经济损失,实证说明该方法可用于极端洪水灾害损失的评估。  相似文献   

改建铁路青藏线西宁至格尔木段增建第二线工程地质灾害危险性评估     

部瑞梅 《陕西地质》2009,27(2):89-96

青藏铁路西宁至格尔木段增建第二线工程作为青藏铁路的一部分,线路全长约763．2km,沿线地质构造复杂和地层岩性岩相变化大,线路穿越多个构造单元,地质灾害发育;本文对沿线区域内地质环境条件进行了详细论述,对地质灾害的类型、分布进行了阐述,对工程建设可能引发或加剧和工程建设本身可能遭受地质灾害的危险性进行了预测评估和综合评估,提出了防治地质灾害的措施及建议。  相似文献   

地震电磁卫星精密定轨方法研究     

杜瑞林  王琪  赵齐乐  乔学军  郭利民 《大地测量与地球动力学》2005,25(2):117-122

高精度卫星轨道是提高卫星应用水平的基础,卫星精密定轨方法主要基于卫星轨道动力学理论．通过跟踪卫星轨迹的测轨技术,将几何和动力学信息进行融合。地震电磁卫星拟采用星载GPS和综合轨道求解方法进行精密定轨．并辅之以人卫激光测距,其定轨的精度可达厘米级。  相似文献   

全球气候变化背景下生态系统的脆弱性评价   总被引：25，自引：4，他引：21  

於琍  曹明奎  李克让 《地理科学进展》2005,24(1):61-69

未来100年气候变暖速度将比上一世纪提高2－10倍,势必对生态系统的格局、过程和服务功能产生巨大影响,威胁生态系统和社会经济的持续发展。因此评价全球气候变化背景下生态系统脆弱性是当前全球变化和生态系统研究的主要内容。由于气候变化以及生态系统对其响应和适应的复杂性,生态系统脆弱性评价进展缓慢。本文在阐明生态系统脆弱性概念的基础上,综述了近年来国内外关于气候变化对生态系统影响及其脆弱性评价研究的现状、方法,归纳和介绍了脆弱性评价研究的三种主要方法——模型模拟研究、指标评价研究以及类比研究,指出气候变化的脆弱性评价研究中存在的问题、不足以及今后的发展方向。  相似文献   

河口和沿岸海域的富营养化评价模型   总被引：17，自引：3，他引：14  

王保栋 《海洋科学进展》2005,23(1):82-86

河口和沿岸海域富营养化评价模型和方法,已经从以营养盐为基础的第1代评价体系发展到当前的以富营养化症状为基础的第2代多参数富营养化评价模型和方法。重点介绍了2种有代表性的、被广泛应用的河口和沿岸海域富营养化评价方法：综合评价法(OSPAR-COMPP)和河口营养状况评价法(ASSETS),比较和评价了这2种方法的特点、异同和优缺点,并建议尽快建立适合我国河口和沿岸海域特点的富营养化评价模型和方法以及相应的监测和管理体系。  相似文献   

洪灾风险评价与区划研究进展   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6  

黄大鹏  刘闯  彭顺风 《地理科学进展》2007,26(4):11-22

洪灾风险评价是洪灾风险管理的首要步骤。洪灾风险区划是在洪灾风险评价基础上的宏 观分区， 有助于更清晰的把握洪灾风险的空间格局与内在规律。文章首先对洪灾风险相关概念进 行了阐述， 试图达到理清和规范的目的。然后对洪灾风险评价常用方法和洪灾风险区划研究进行 了评述。目前主要的洪灾风险评价方法有地貌学方法、水文水力学模型与系统仿真模拟方法、基 于历史灾情数据的方法、基于水灾史料和古洪水调查的方法、遥感与GIS 方法、基于洪灾形成机 制的系统分析方法等。最后对洪灾风险评价与洪灾风险区划研究进行了小结， 并指出了未来在洪 灾风险评价与区划的数据基础、洪灾风险评价的时空尺度、洪灾风险区划的理论与方法、洪灾风 险评价与区划的技术手段等方面的可能发展前景。  相似文献   

基于DEM坡度坡向算法精度的分析研究   总被引：65，自引：4，他引：61  

刘学军  龚健雅  周启鸣  汤国安 《测绘学报》2004,33(3):258-263

坡度坡向是两个最基本的地形因子,目前对DEM坡度坡向计算模型和精度存在一些不同的甚至矛盾的观点,其原因在于没有区分误差来源和分析评价方法的不同.本文对DEM坡度坡向误差进行了理论分析,并通过实验数据对相关结论进行了验证.旨在澄清目前关于坡度坡向计算模型上的矛盾结论.  相似文献   

Visualization and damage assessment for flooded area     

SUGuozhong YANLi LIUNan LIURenyi 《地球空间信息科学学报》2004,7(3):180-186

A practical method for visualizing flood area and evaluating damage is presented, which consists of two technical approaches: self-programming and adapting commercial GIS platforms. The low-cost and easy-to-use GIS-Based model developed by self-programming can meet current requirements of most local authorities, especially in developing countries. In this model, two cases, non-source flood and source flood, are distinguished and the Seed-spread algorithm suitable for source-flood is discussed; The flood damage is assessed by overlaying the flood area range with thematic maps and other related social and economic data. and all the-matic maps are converted to raster format before overlay analysis. Two measures are taken to improve the operation efficiency of speed seed-spread algorithm. The accuracy of the model mainly depends on the resolution and precision of the DEM data, and the accuracy of registering all raster layers and the quality of attribute data.  相似文献